The researchers concluded that most of the additional high-risk days would come at the beginning and end of present-day fire season, meaning fire seasons would last longer than they do now, MacDonald said.Īlthough the amount of acres burned per year hasn’t increased in Southern California in over four decades, the region hasn’t been spared entirely. And the north has more forested areas, where fires are often left to burn because there’s less significant danger to human life and property, while the south has more brushland, which is more likely to burn more frequently. In the south, for example, there are fewer lightning strikes, but the large population means that there are more human-based ignition sources that could potentially cause fires, and there are more people in harm’s way. The conditions that determine the likelihood and severity of wildfires are quite different in the southern part of the state compared with the north. ![]() They also examined which climatic factors correlate with large wildfires and looked at long-term projections for greenhouse gas emissions to see how those factors are likely to change over time. The researchers reached their conclusions in part by zooming in on low-resolution global climate models to predict regional conditions in more detail. Even under a more conservative scenario, in which people take stronger action to slow climate change and the region’s average temperature increases by about 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit, the number of high-risk days are expected to increase by an average of about 60% per year by the end of the century. Under a scenario in which the average temperature in Southern California increases by almost 9 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100 - which would be likely if there is no significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions - the study projects that the number of days with a high risk for fire would nearly double to about 58 days per year. In the central and south coast, there’s no significant trend toward increases in the annual amount of area burned.” “The northern coast and Sierra Nevada are driving that. “If you look at the whole state, there’s been a statistically significant upswing in area burned,” said UCLA climate scientist Glen MacDonald, co-author of the paper. Researchers found no substantial increase in amount of area burned per year over the past 45 years. The study, which is published in the Nature journal Communications Earth & Environment, analyzes data dating to 1975. The number of days per year with increased risk for more and larger wildfires in Southern California is projected to increase significantly through the end of the century, according to new UCLA-led research. Although Southern California has had its share of wildfires in that span, too, the region hasn’t experienced the same increase.īut that disparity between north and south is not likely to continue. The area consumed each year by fires has increased significantly over that period - particularly in the Sierra Nevada and northern parts of the state. California’s massive fire seasons the past two years are part of a trend that scientists have traced back for more than four decades.
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